Aurora Area · September 2026
Which Communities Are Warming, Stable or Cooling?
A homeowner focused comparison of ten local market reports using inventory, closed sales, pending activity, market time and pricing response.
It represents neighborhood market analysis
Quick answer: No community met every condition required for a confident “hot market” label. Blackstone showed the strongest increase in closed activity, Tallyn’s Reach gained transaction momentum, Copperleaf remained the most balanced, and several communities showed cooler or cooling conditions.
How the temperature is measured
The report separates current conditions from direction so that “cool” and “cooling” do not mean the same thing.
Current temperature
How competitive or price sensitive the market appears right now.
- Months of inventory
- Average days on market
- Sale to original list price
- Price reduction frequency
- Pending sales relative to active supply
Market direction
Whether activity and seller results are strengthening, holding or weakening.
- Closed sales compared with last September
- Changes in market time and pricing response
- New listing direction
- Average price and price per square foot, with property mix considered
Why not label the strongest market “hot”?
A genuinely hot market normally combines limited supply, fast sales, strong sale to list performance and relatively few price reductions. Blackstone and Tallyn’s Reach showed meaningful activity, but market time and pricing concessions reveal that buyers remained selective.
September community temperature board
Classification reflects the full set of available indicators, not one headline statistic.
| Community | Current read | Direction | Confidence | Evidence behind the classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone | Warm | Increasing activity | Moderate | 7 home sales versus 1, about 2.6 months of home inventory and stronger home pricing. Longer market times prevent a full hot label. |
| Tallyn’s Reach | Warm but sensitive | Increasing activity | Moderate | 11 sales versus 7, about 2.3 months of inventory and 9 pending sales. A 93.1% sale to original list ratio and frequent reductions show price resistance. |
| Copperleaf | Balanced | Stable | Moderate | 9 sales, about 2.6 months of inventory and a 2.9% increase in average price. Sales eased slightly and price per square foot declined. |
| Saddle Rock | Cooler | Cooling | Moderate | Sales declined from 16 to 6, inventory reached about 4.8 months and all 6 sales showed reductions. The 12 pending sales are a positive counter signal. |
| Wheatlands | Balanced to cool | Cooling | Limited | Sales held at 3, but average price, price per square foot and market speed weakened. The small sample requires caution. |
| Painted Prairie | Cool | Cooling | Moderate | About 6.9 months of inventory, 89 average days on market, a 93.6% sale to original list ratio and reductions on all 7 September sales. |
| Southshore | Cool | Cooling | Low | 25 active listings against 1 closing. That sale required 149 days and closed at about 89.1% of its original list price. |
| Tallgrass | Cool | Cooling | Low | 1 sale versus 6 and about 7.0 months of inventory. The closing sold at 95.0% of its original list price; 2 pending sales provide a positive counter signal. |
| The Aurora Highlands | Cool | Cooling | Low | 54 active listings against 1 closing, 92 days on market and about 90.9% of original list price. One sale cannot establish a broad price trend. |
| Beacon Point | Mixed | Insufficient evidence | Low | Only 1 sale was recorded. Supply was limited to 2 active listings with 1 pending, but the closing took 103 days and required a reduction. |
The market is not moving in one direction
The most useful story comes from grouping communities by both pressure and momentum.
Increasing activity
Blackstone and Tallyn’s Reach recorded the clearest gains in closing activity.
- Momentum improved.
- Pricing still needed to match buyer expectations.
- Neither community met every test for a fully hot market.
Balanced and relatively stable
Copperleaf had the clearest middle ground between supply, activity and pricing.
- Inventory remained near 2.6 months.
- Average price increased modestly.
- Property mix helps explain the lower price per square foot.
Cooling or currently cool
Saddle Rock, Wheatlands, Painted Prairie, Southshore, Tallgrass and The Aurora Highlands showed softer demand, additional supply or greater pricing friction.
- Saddle Rock’s pending pipeline deserves monitoring.
- Painted Prairie had the clearest supply build.
- Southshore, Tallgrass and The Aurora Highlands had only one closing each.
Watch list
Beacon Point produced mixed signals that should not be forced into a firm category.
- Only two active listings were recorded.
- One pending sale supported near term activity.
- The only closing required 103 days and a price reduction.
What stands out inside the classifications
These details explain why one statistic is rarely enough to describe a neighborhood market.
Strongest upward activity
Blackstone
September home sales increased from one to seven, but the prior year comparison begins with an unusually small base. Active homes had a median market time of 131 days, which is an important reason to describe Blackstone as increasing rather than hot.
Activity up · pricing sensitive
Tallyn’s Reach
The closing count and pending pipeline were encouraging. At the same time, 10 of 11 sales showed reductions and average market time reached 61 days. Demand was present, but buyers were selective about price.
The balanced middle
Copperleaf
Sales were close to last year and market time was nearly unchanged. Eight of nine closings had four or more bedrooms, so the larger home mix matters when reading the higher average price and lower price per square foot.
Clearest supply pressure
Painted Prairie
Closed sales held at seven, but new listings increased from 10 to 18. Every September sale showed a reduction, indicating that available choices and pricing competition mattered.
A cool market can still contain a strong individual sale.
These classifications describe community level conditions, not every property. A well positioned home can outperform a cooler market, while an overpriced or poorly presented home can struggle in a warmer one. Location, condition, lot, updates, basement, property type and competition remain essential.
How homeowners can use the report
Market temperature is most useful when it changes the preparation, pricing or negotiation plan.
If you are considering selling
- Use the closest property type and price range, not the broad community average alone.
- In cooling markets, compare your home with active competition before setting the launch price.
- Evaluate improvements through the likely buyer’s priorities rather than assuming every project adds equal value.
- Review market time and reduction patterns when planning timing and expectations.
If you are considering buying
- Look for negotiation opportunities in communities with longer market times and frequent reductions.
- Do not assume every listing in a cooler market is overpriced or distressed.
- Compare complete monthly cost, condition and future maintenance—not price alone.
- Use the inspection and the closest recent sales to support the offer strategy.
Community market temperature questions
Short answers about how to interpret the labels and apply them responsibly.
What makes a neighborhood market “hot”?
A hot market normally combines low supply, fast sales, strong sale to list performance, limited price reductions and enough transactions to support the conclusion. One strong metric by itself is not sufficient.
Why is Blackstone labeled increasing instead of hot?
Blackstone’s closing activity and home pricing strengthened, but the comparison began with only one prior year sale. September home sales averaged 49.1 days on market, and active homes had a median market time of 131 days. Those measures show meaningful pricing and timing friction.
How can activity increase while a market remains price sensitive?
More homes can close even when buyers negotiate aggressively. Tallyn’s Reach illustrates this distinction: sales and pending activity were strong, while the sale to original list ratio and reduction frequency showed that pricing still mattered.
Why not rank communities by average sale price change?
The homes sold in one month may differ substantially from the prior year in size, property type, bedroom count, lot and condition. Average price can rise because larger homes sold, even when price per square foot or buyer response weakened.
Can this report determine what my home is worth?
No. It provides community context, not an appraisal. A useful value range requires a review of the most comparable recent sales and the features, condition, location and competition specific to the property.
Local Market Guidance
Find your home’s place in today’s community market.
A property specific review can narrow the data to the homes buyers are most likely to compare with yours and identify how current supply, condition and pricing may affect your options.
John Nichols · Real Estate Advisor | Coldwell Banker Realty
720.877.1940 · CORealestateJohn@gmail.com
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